Did My Home Beat the Market? Comparing Your Sale With the Index

The short answer

Your home beat the market if its price rose by a larger percentage between your purchase and your sale than your area’s FHFA house price index did over the same window. A home bought for $310,000 in March 2014 and sold for $650,000 in June 2025 rose +109.7%. The index for its ZIP rose +95.1% between 2014 and 2025, so the home beat its ZIP by +14.6% points, or $45,189 in price. Against the Texas state index, which rose +116.8% over 2014 Q1 to 2025 Q2, the same sale trailed by -7.1% points. Which area you compare against is part of the answer, and the rest of this guide is about reading that honestly.

The two changes

Your change = sale price ÷ purchase price − 1

Market change = index at sale ÷ index at purchase − 1

The market side uses the FHFA House Price Index, which follows repeat sales and refinancings of the same homes, so its change is what an unchanged, typical home in the area did between the two dates. Your side is two prices you already know. The difference between the two percentages is the headline, and purchase price × the market factor is the price the area’s change alone would have produced, so the gap can also be read in dollars. The did your home beat the market tool prints both changes, both index values and the gap either way.

Matching the dates

State and metro indexes are quarterly, so a sale in June 2025 is matched to 2025 Q2. County and ZIP indexes are annual, so the same sale is matched to 2025. That has two consequences. A purchase and sale inside the same year cannot be compared on a ZIP or county index at all, and the tool moves up to the quarterly metro or state series and says so. And a sale in the last few months may be later than the newest published period, in which case there is no market figure yet for that date. A comparison is only as fine as the series behind it.

A worked example

You bought in March 2014 for $310,000 in ZIP 78704, in Austin, Texas, and sold in June 2025 for $650,000.

1. Your change: $650,000 ÷ $310,000 = 2.10, or +109.7%.
2. The annual ZIP 78704 index was 1529.73 in 2014 and 2984.51 in 2025.
3. Market change: 2984.51 ÷ 1529.73 = 1.95, or +95.1%.
4. The area’s change alone would have taken $310,000 to $310,000 × 1.95 = $604,811.
5. Gap: +109.7% − +95.1% = +14.6% points, and $650,000 − $604,811 = $45,189 above the area.

The same sale against the state

The two verdicts point in opposite directions: the sale beat the ZIP and trailed the state, and the two area-only prices differ by $67,275. Neither is wrong. The ZIP index describes one neighborhood, on an annual, smaller-sample series FHFA labels developmental; the state index describes all of Texas on a quarterly one. The smallest area with data is the fairer comparison for a specific house, which is why the tool starts at the ZIP and names every level it skipped. But the spread is the reason the level and the periods belong next to the verdict, never behind it.

What the gap is made of

The index knows nothing about your house, so everything about it that differed from the area’s typical home lands in the gap. A renovation or an addition raises your side and not the market’s. A roof that aged, a busier road, a lot smaller than the neighbors’ do the opposite. A purchase below market in 2014 shows up as beating the index in 2025 even if nothing changed in between, and an overpayment shows up as trailing it. Timing inside a quarter and a thin ZIP index move the figure too. The comparison cannot separate any of these; it can only make the gap visible so you can name its causes yourself.

What this comparison cannot know

• Your house. The market side is the area’s average. Renovations, condition and lot are ignored by it, and they are the usual reason for a gap.
• Sales the index never sees. The FHFA index is built from mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so cash, jumbo, FHA and VA purchases are not in it (FHFA HPI FAQ).
• What you cleared. Commissions, closing costs, repairs and the mortgage balance are not deducted. This compares prices, not proceeds. The equity guide covers the balance side.
• Whether either price was right. It is not an appraisal of the home at either date.

Sources

• FHFA House Price Index datasets, the annual ZIP file and the quarterly master file.
• FHFA HPI frequently asked questions, on what the index includes and the developmental label.
• FHFA HPI technical description, the repeat-sales method.

This guide is for informational purposes only. It is not an appraisal, and not financial, tax, lending or real-estate advice. Every estimate on this site tracks an area’s average, never a particular house. Confirm anything that matters with a licensed appraiser or your lender.

Last reviewed: September 2026 · Against the FHFA House Price Index (annual ZIP file dated March 31, 2026; master file through 2026 Q2).