Guidesfrom the federal index
What Will My House Be Worth in 5 Years? The Honest Version of the Question
No index knows the future. What you can do is carry today's estimate forward at your area's own past rate, and see how much the answer moves with the window.
The short answer
Nobody knows, and no index does either. The FHFA House Price Index is a record of what already happened. What you can do honestly is take today’s estimate and carry it forward at the rate your own area actually managed over its last 10 or 20 years, and then look hard at how much the answer moves when you change the window. For the worked purchase on this site, a $310,000 home bought in March 2014 in ZIP 78704 and worth about $604,811 on the ZIP index today, the two windows give $808,101 and $825,242 in five years. That spread is the real content of the answer. The home value since purchase calculator prints both rows under every result.
Why the usual calculators give one number
Most “future home value” calculators ask for a value and a growth rate, and offer a national average as the rate. The arithmetic is the same as here, value × (1 + rate)years, but the rate is the weak link: a national average applied to one house in one ZIP. The rate below is the area’s own, from the FHFA series the estimate itself used, and it comes with its window printed beside it so you can see what it contains.
The rate is the area’s own compound rate
Rate = (index now ÷ index N years ago)1 ÷ N − 1
Value in Y years = value today × (1 + rate)Y
The rate is the one yearly percentage that, repeated every year, turns the index of N years ago into the index now. It is the same per-year figure every area page on this site shows for its 10- and 20-year windows. Carrying it forward assumes the next years look like the last N, which is the assumption, stated out loud, not a hidden one.
A worked example
ZIP 78704, Austin, Texas, on FHFA’s annual 5-digit ZIP index (a developmental series). Today’s estimate for the March 2014 purchase is $604,811: index 2984.51 in 2025 ÷ 1529.73 in 2014 = 1.95, × $310,000.
| Past window | Rate | In 5 years | In 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 to 2025 (10 years) | +6.0% a year | $808,101 | $1,079,720 |
| 2005 to 2025 (20 years) | +6.4% a year | $825,242 | $1,126,010 |
The 10-year row: $604,811 × 1.05975 = $808,101. The 20-year row: $604,811 × 1.06415 = $825,242. Five years out, the two windows differ by $17,141; ten years out, by $46,290.
The same purchase on the Texas index
On the quarterly state series, the estimate today is $682,635 (2014 Q1 to 2026 Q2, factor 2.20).
| Past window | Rate | In 5 years | In 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Q2 to 2026 Q2 (10 years) | +6.5% a year | $933,773 | $1,277,305 |
| 2006 Q2 to 2026 Q2 (20 years) | +4.8% a year | $862,469 | $1,089,680 |
Notice the order flips. On the ZIP series the 20-year rate (+6.4%) is the higher one; on the Texas series the 10-year rate (+6.5%) is. The 20-year window starts in 2006 Q2, near the last peak, and carries the 2006 to 2012 fall; the 10-year window starts after it. Which past you pick is most of the answer, and that is the point of showing two.
How to read the two rows
- As a range, not a number. Two rates from the same series can sit a full point apart. Anything between them, and plenty outside, is consistent with the area’s own record.
- As a check on a pitch. If someone quotes you a future value, ask what rate it assumes and what window that rate came from. If it is a national average, it is not about your area.
- Never as a plan. The index fell for six straight years in most of the country from 2006. A rate that includes those years and one that excludes them are both honest history, and neither is a promise.
What this cannot know
- The future. Every figure above is history carried forward by arithmetic. It is not a forecast, and it is not this site’s or anyone’s prediction.
- Your house. Today’s estimate tracks the area’s average. Renovations, condition and lot are invisible to it, and stay invisible in every projected row.
- Sales the index never sees. The FHFA index is built from mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so cash, jumbo, FHA and VA purchases are not in it (FHFA HPI FAQ).
- An appraisal. Neither the estimate nor the rows are one. Confirm anything that matters with a licensed appraiser or your lender.
Sources
- FHFA House Price Index datasets, the annual ZIP file and the quarterly master file.
- FHFA HPI frequently asked questions, on what the index includes.
- FHFA HPI technical description, the repeat-sales method.
This guide is for informational purposes only. It is not an appraisal, and not financial, tax, lending or real-estate advice. Every estimate on this site tracks an area’s average, never a particular house. Confirm anything that matters with a licensed appraiser or your lender.
Last reviewed: September 2026 · Against the FHFA House Price Index (annual ZIP file dated March 31, 2026; master file through 2026 Q2).