Crash and recovery
How far did home prices fall in your area, and when did they recover?
Pick a state or metro area, and your purchase date if you like. You get the biggest fall in its home prices since 1975, the quarter it peaked, the low, when it got back, and how long a home bought when you did sat below its price, from the federal FHFA House Price Index with the math shown.
Peak, low and recovery
Choose the area, add a purchase month if you want the under-water years, then press the button. The example below is a real result.
Informational only, not professional advice and not an appraisal. It describes the area’s average, which no particular house follows exactly.
Methodology
The biggest fall. Walking the series from 1975, every quarter is compared with the highest value before it. The largest such decline is the fall reported: its peak is that earlier high, its low is the quarter of the largest decline, and the recovery is the first later quarter at or above the peak value. Fall = (low ÷ peak) − 1. The all-time high and the latest quarter’s distance from it are shown too, so a fall still in progress is visible. The index is the FHFA House Price Index, which measures how the prices of the same homes change between sales.
The purchase. A purchase month is matched to its quarter. The block reports the lowest index value after that quarter relative to the value then, and the first quarter at or above it again; the years between are the years under water on the area average. A home that never had a lower quarter afterward is never under water.
Which series. FHFA’s all-transactions index, not seasonally adjusted, quarterly, from the master file (latest period 2026 Q2: the 50 states, the District of Columbia and 410 metro areas and divisions, from 1975; last pull 2026-09-28). County and ZIP indexes are annual and thinner and are not offered here.
What this history cannot know
- Any particular house. It is the area’s average. Renovations, condition, lot and price tier are not in it.
- Sales the index never sees. Per FHFA’s own description, it is built from repeat sales and appraisals on conforming mortgages bought by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Cash, jumbo, FHA and VA purchases are not in it, including many distressed sales.
- Inflation. Peaks and recoveries are in the dollars of each date. In real terms every recovery took longer.
- The future. A past fall says nothing about the next one. It is not an appraisal and not a forecast.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Data vintage: FHFA master file 2026 Q2.
Frequently asked questions
Is the biggest fall always the 2008 crash?
No. For most coastal and Sun Belt areas it is, but Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and their metros fell hardest in the 1980s oil bust, and some Northeast metros in the early 1990s. The tool scans the whole series from 1975 and reports the largest decline from any earlier high, so it finds whichever it was.
What does under water mean here?
That the area's average price is below what it was when you bought, so a home that followed the average would sell for less than it cost. The purchase block counts the years from your purchase quarter to the first quarter the index was back at or above its value then. It ignores your mortgage balance; the equity tool covers that side.
Why does the fall differ from what I remember of my own street?
The index is the average of repeat sales across the whole metro or state, on conforming mortgages, not seasonally adjusted. One neighborhood, one price tier, or the distressed sales that dominated 2009 to 2011 can have fallen much more or less. FHFA's purchase-only and seasonally adjusted versions of the same series show slightly different peaks and lows too.
Are the figures adjusted for inflation?
No. A recovery here means the index got back to its peak value in the dollars of each date. Adjusted for inflation the recovery takes longer, since the peak's dollars were worth more; the did your home beat inflation tool applies the CPI to a specific purchase.
Guides
- How Far Did Home Prices Fall in 2008, and When Did They Recover? By Area, From the IndexHow to find an area's biggest home price fall on the FHFA index, the quarter it got back, and the years a purchase at the top sat under water, on Phoenix.
Related tools
Pick a state or metro area and a month since 1975. See how much home prices have gone up since then, per year, with the FHFA index values and the same window for the state and the US.
Open tool →Compare Home Price Growth in Two AreasPick two states or metro areas and a month since 1975. See how much home prices rose in each, the gap in points and on the same $100,000, and the nation beside them, from the FHFA index.
Open tool →Home Value Since Purchase CalculatorEnter what you paid, when, and your ZIP. See what your home is worth today if it grew like homes in your area did, with the FHFA index values and the math shown.
Open tool →Home Equity Since Purchase CalculatorYour estimated value today minus what you still owe: the equity you have built since you bought, with the FHFA index and the loan balance math shown.
Open tool →