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How to Compare Home Price Growth Between Two Cities Without Misreading the Index

Index levels cannot be compared across cities; only changes over one window can. How to compare two areas' home price growth correctly, on Austin and Denver.

The short answer

Compare changes, never levels, and give both places the same window. Since January 2020 (2020 Q1 to 2026 Q2) home prices rose +44.0% in the Austin metro and +40.2% in the Denver metro on FHFA’s quarterly index, so Austin is ahead by 3.7 points. Start in January 2012 instead and Denver is ahead, +169.9% to +162.2%. Both statements are true; each is about its window. The compare two areas tool runs this for any two states or metros from any month.

The trap: reading index values across cities

An FHFA series is scaled so that its own base period equals 100, and the base period is not the same for every area. In 2020 Q1 the Austin index stood at 351.66 and Denver’s at 351.18; that near-equality says nothing about their prices, which differ, or their growth, which the next 6.25 years decided. A higher index does not mean a dearer or a faster city. The only comparison the index supports is each area’s ratio of two of its own values, over an identical window (FHFA’s HPI FAQ).

For each area: change = (index now ÷ index then) − 1

Gap = one area’s change − the other’s, in percentage points

Matching the windows

The state and metro series are quarterly, so a month is matched to its quarter and both areas run from that quarter to the latest published one, 2026 Q2. A comparison of one area’s five-year change with another’s ten-year change is not a comparison. If the windows must differ, compare the per-year rates, (index now ÷ index then)1 ÷ years − 1, which put unequal spans on the same footing.

A worked example: Austin against Denver since January 2020

  1. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: 506.31 ÷ 351.66 = 1.4398, so +44.0%, about +6.0% a year.
  2. Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: 492.50 ÷ 351.18 = 1.4024, so +40.2%, about +5.6% a year.
  3. Gap: +44.0% − +40.2% = 3.7 points in Austin’s favor.
  4. On the same $100,000 home: $143,977 in Austin against $140,241 in Denver, a difference of $3,736.
AreaWindowIndex thenIndex nowChangePer year$100,000 then
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX2020 Q1 to 2026 Q2351.66506.31+44.0%+6.0%$143,977
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO2020 Q1 to 2026 Q2351.18492.50+40.2%+5.6%$140,241
Texas2020 Q1 to 2026 Q2348.83531.31+52.3%+7.0%$152,312
United States2020 Q1 to 2026 Q2448.64719.87+60.5%+7.9%$160,456

Two more rows show what the pair alone hides. Texas as a whole rose +52.3%, so Austin trailed its own state by 8.3 points; and the nation rose +60.5%, so both metros trailed the country over this window. Ahead of Denver is not the same as ahead.

The same pair from January 2012

AreaWindowIndex thenIndex nowChangePer year$100,000 then
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX2012 Q1 to 2026 Q2193.08506.31+162.2%+7.0%$262,228
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO2012 Q1 to 2026 Q2182.47492.50+169.9%+7.2%$269,907
United States2012 Q1 to 2026 Q2309.55719.87+132.6%+6.1%$232,554

Over 14.25 years from the 2012 bottom Denver leads, +169.9% to +162.2%, a gap of 7.7 points the other way, and both are well ahead of the nation’s +132.6%. Whoever quotes a city-versus-city figure without its start month has left out the part that decides the answer.

What a two-area comparison cannot know

  • Any particular house. Each figure is the metro’s average from repeat sales. Renovations, condition, lot and neighborhood are not in it.
  • Sales the index never sees. Cash, jumbo, FHA and VA purchases are not in the FHFA index, which is built from conforming mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
  • Price levels and inflation. It compares growth in the dollars of each date, not what homes cost in either city and not real returns.
  • The next window. The index is history. It is not a forecast and not an appraisal.

Sources

This guide is for informational purposes only. It is not an appraisal, and not financial, tax, lending or real-estate advice. Every estimate on this site tracks an area’s average, never a particular house. Confirm anything that matters with a licensed appraiser or your lender.

Last reviewed: September 2026 · Against the FHFA House Price Index master file (quarterly state and metro series through 2026 Q2).